The View from the Meadow

Observations of the Passing Scene

Political and Social Commentary by Dave Satre

A Bully Bullies a Bully
North Korea Requires Intelligent International Negotiations

Oct. 11, 2006

Kim Jong Il, North Korea’s temperamental tyrant, is rattling his nuclear sabers and challenging the world’s powers in the process. Why is this man so brazen? What are his real goals and why is he challenging the world?

What if Kim actually attacked South Korea – or the U.S.? This is something that not even a fool would contemplate. The international military reactions would quickly squelch the effort and immediately bring down Kim and his regime. But the mere threat offers potential political consequences that could actually be beneficial to Kim’s survival.

The country recently tested a nuclear device, although the results were questionable. They have previously tested missiles, seven tests in July, that could serve to deliver nuclear devices, including one that could eventually be capable of reaching America (good luck West Coast). However, it has so far failed to launch in tests.

The Kim family has been in power since 1948 when Kim’s father, Kim Sung Il became the country’s prime minister and later its president. Although the son sometimes appears to be a maniac, Kim’s actions are deceptively well-planned and his experts have had many years to consider their situation. Kim Jong Il has survived since assuming control in 1994 by manipulating the United States, China and South Korea and even managing to get them to subsidize his country.

For GW Bush the North Korean issue may have arisen at a fortuitous time -- it’s only a matter of weeks until the November elections and there’s nothing like the threat of war to get undecided voters to support a current administration.

GW was quick to bring up his old Axis of Evil material and to start posturing like the chip-on-his-shoulder Texas bully he likes to pretend to be.

But a bully can’t bully a bully and Kim is unlikely to acquiesce to Bush, who likes to talk the talk but can’t walk the walk. He’s gotten himself into enough trouble already without dragging the U.S. into another mindless quagmire like Iraq.

There is support for a non-military solution, an economic boycott, but the United States cannot, itself, affect the North Korean economy – China is its main supplier. A UN-sanctioned boycott of trade in nuclear weapons and materials might be affective. This is something that needs to imposed worldwide.

If the Bush Regime were somehow able to engineer the downfall of the Kim government the U.S. could be saddled with an incredibly expensive humanitarian relief program that could conceivably lead to its own downfall. The U.S. military would be expected to lead the effort to stabilize the North and deliver humanitarian assistance, which would be a humongous drain on our already depleted treasury.

In the event of the demise of the North Korean government the United States cannot unilaterally insert troops into the country to provide stability. A four-power United Nations intervention force—the United States, China, South Korea, and Russia -- would most likely negotiate a solution. Japan, which has a long history of hostility toward Korea, would not be allowed to participate, despite its concerns over China.

If the Bush Regime were to react irrationally with military action to Kim’s posturing, Kim might be able to place the blame on the United States. There would be an international outcry that would include a call for peace talks, which would place Kim in a strong negotiating position. This would also enable him to obtain international aid that would keep his reign afloat. This could, conceivably, be Kim’s ulterior motive in raising the nuclear issue.

After more than a half century of U.S. occupation, relations with South Korea are beginning to strain. Many South Koreans no longer want American troops in their country. The generation that remembers America’s role in developing South Korea’s free society is growing old and younger generations may have a more negative opinion of U.S. troops. They are just as worried about the Americans’ intentions as they are about the Chinese, the Japanese and the North Koreans. Current United States plans call for a complete withdraw of its troops in South Korea by 2008.

There are many signs that the Kim Regime may be reaching its breaking point. Despots sensing their oncoming demise tend to become irrational. And dangerous. Kim’s current actions could be a sign that he’s running scared. A bit of bravado in the face of the oncoming threat. Or does he have ulterior motives?

Kim’s aggressive actions may actually be a maneuver to force the United States to deal with him, which could make him appear much stronger to the Chinese. They are his primary concern. The stronger Kim appears, the better off he is in his crucial economic dealings with Beijing.

North Korea is a small, impoverished country with 23.1 million people who have been on the brink of starvation for decades. Many people are living off the land and the forests are reportedly denuded. They’re consuming everything that’s edible. Many of its citizens have been unhappily separated from their families since the creation of the demilitarized zone (DMZ) separating the two countries at the end of the Korean Conflict in 1953.

Unemployment is rampant in the country. The military is the country’s largest employer and most of it’s 1.2 million soldiers are deployed along the DMZ, which is also the South Korean border. Kim Jong Il has complete control of the North Korean People’s Army, but it is simply too large to be kept well fed and content under the country’s current economic situation.

The North Korean military threat to South Korea is formidable. It has well-trained special forces and its large stockpile of biological and chemical weapons, including anthrax and cholera, presents more of a potential threat than the country’s current nuclear capabilities.

The Kim Regime has its own production facilities and is capable of launching these weapons on Seoul, which is home to 49 million people, about half of South Korea’s population, and is only about 30 miles south of the DMZ. North Korea could decimate the city with a massive missile attack and/or chemical weapons. It would be relatively simple to bring the country to its knees by quickly knocking out its transportation facilities and water supplies.

If the North Korean government falls anarchy could reign in the streets and it is possible the army could survive the demise of the Kim Regime. This could become a worse military nightmare for the U.S. than Iraq. With power floundering in the streets, America might find itself mounting humanitarian relief efforts at the same time it’s involved in combat operations. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

Kim’s downfall would certainly benefit South Korea, but oddly enough, many South Koreans are not in favor of a sudden reunification with North Korea, despite the long-despised separation of families issue and the continuous military threat. It would be an incredible burden for the country, which is highly developed economically and technologically, in sharp contrast with the North. The absorption of millions of starving North Koreans would impose financial hardships and curtailments of the modern luxuries the southern people have become accustomed to.

A slow transition would be much more feasible and economic sanctions against the North are a far better solution from South Korea’s perspective. They would like to see an end to the humanitarian aid which is currently propping up the Kim Regime.

The furor over Kim Jong Il’s missile tests and nuclear brinksmanship obscures the real threat: the prospect of North Korea’s catastrophic collapse. The end of the Kim Family Regime could determine the balance of power in Asia for future generations.

China would be in the strongest position to take over control of the country in the event of such a collapse. The country would also benefit from a unified Korean market, although it is already both North and South Korea’s largest trading partner. Access to North Korea’s ports on the Sea of Japan would also benefit China’s trade with Russia.

China is already gaining control over anything in North Korea with economic and military value. It is also reportedly planning a replacement for the current government that will provide the country’s inhabitants with a lifestyle much more pleasant than they’re currently experiencing under Kim.

A unified Korea’s proximity would present a great threat to Japan, which is particularly concerned with the position of China in this situation. A unified Korea could expect China’s support if Japan were to become an imminent threat. Japan will blame the potential threats of the unified country for a planned buildup of its military defenses.

The continuing U.S. military alliance with Japan concerns both North and South Koreans. Following the unification, the United States would need to continue it’s military presence in Korea, which it has maintained since the end of the Korean conflict, to assure Korea that it would not side with Japan in a conflict.

The tensions among the neighboring countries who are concerned with the potential military might of a united Korea, especially if backed by China, will likely cause them to focus on their own defenses. This might result in a renewed arms race in Asia and a revival of the cold war.

More Info:

When North Korea Falls
Robert D. Kaplan
Atlantic Monthly Oct 2006
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200610/kaplan-korea

Kim's War Machine
Donald Macintyre
Time Feb 24, 2003
http://www.time.com/time/asia/covers/501030224/army.html

NK Tests Nuclear Weapon
Barry Briggs
North Korea Zone
http://www.nkzone.org/nkzone/

North Korea's Kim flaunts Nuclear Prowess
Reuters
Mon Oct 9, 2006
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-10-
09T081754Z_01_NOA929756_RTRUKOC_0_KOREA-NORTH-KIM.xml

North Korea Threatens War Over Sanctions
HANS GREIMEL
The Daily Item Oct 11, 2006
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/K/KOREAS_NUCLEAR?SITE=PASUN&SECTION=
HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT